The news media likes planting things in our heads. It doesn’t matter whether it’s CNN or Fox News, Sean Hannity or Rachel Maddow, they each lead their own ideological pep rallies. So how do we sort it all out and get down to the bare bones of the truth?
A few weeks back I read an OpEd in the New York Times, which, in so many words, predicted the death of the Republican Party. It particularly caught my attention because the writer used statistics to prove his points, and it wasn’t just conjecture.
I have been feeling the same way for years, even though my data is not just historical, but somewhat of a forecast based on trends. These are things we don’t have to, and don’t want to, watch CNN for, all we have to do is go get the data and see how it changes over time.
The most telling data was not the Trump election in 2016, but the Obama elections in 2008 and 2012, and as far back as the Clinton election in 1992. Though it will be interesting, to say the least, I’m not even sure the 2020 election will be as telling as the one to follow in 2024.
The 1992 election has had more total voter turnout, percentage wise, of any election since that time. One does’t have to look very hard to see the difference between that election and all the others that followed. Rather than two candidates, the 1992 election had three: incumbent George H. Bush (R), Bill Clinton (D), and Ross Perot (I).
I don’t think there is any doubt that the independent voter, also known as the “swing voter” determines our election results. Sometimes they vote, sometimes they don’t. But when an Independent candidate ran, the swing voters came out of the woodwork.
Though George H. Bush was an incumbent, and the odds were in his favor, he lost. There is much debate as to why, but the data will show that Ross Perot, who had the least odds of winning, took a lot of the Bush votes giving Bill Clinton the edge. In other words, if Perot hadn’t have ran, our history may have been much, much different.
In 2008 the total voter turnout wasn't any different than other years, with a less than 1% margin, but still over 6% less than the 1992 turnout. So where did Obama get his edge? Some say it was the black vote, but the data shows that black votes are predominantly for the democratic candidate no matter who they are.
The big change in 2008 was the youth vote: the 18-29 year old voter. Since the 1996 election, that voter percentage rose over 11%. It was actually in 2004 that they rose to almost 9%, but we have to ask ourselves why this trend was just starting to happen?
The consensus is, it was the dawn of the millennial (Generation Y) voter.
If we want to wonder why anyone is predicting the death of the GOP then this is their best argument, because the data, and the cultural attitudes, support it. In the 2016 election, the 18-29 year old voter group was the largest, 58%, to vote for Hillary Clinton.
To ask ourselves why may be based more on speculation, but I’d put my money on the following theories:
1: Liberal Education. Our public school systems, with exception to some of the more rural schools in conservative areas, are overrun by left leaning teachers, administrators, and their curriculum. Yes, I’m going to say it: they are brainwashing our children.
2: Child Activists. We see it everywhere. Not just in the news, but in private video posts on social media, and in our own school systems. Children are being used as pawns to push radical leftist agendas. For Pete’s sake, they get a day off of school to protest the “climate crisis.”
3: Social Media Marketing. Everyone knows that our youth are more tech savvy, and catch on to the twists and turns and dark alleys of the social media much easier than the older generations. The left knows this, and via propaganda and peer pressure, our children are subject to all the lusts of their campaigns.
4: Dying Baby Boomers. The Greatest Generation is no longer the oldest generation. The Baby Boomers have passed retirement age, and as they leave us, they are replaced by the up and coming Generation Z. The Boomlets. If we think the Millennials are alt-left friendly, just wait until the 2024 election and then we will all see the new face of America.
A while back I wrote an article on the left’s attempt to turn Texas “blue”, or in other words make it a blue state. Though the left has many ideas in their bag of tricks, this is definitely one of them. In the form of electoral votes, if they win Texas, they win all elections.
There has been a concentrated effort to encourage immigration to Texas, because immigrants traditionally vote blue. And don’t forget, of course, illegal immigration. Why do you think they are against securing our borders? If all the “undocumented” need is to have a driver’s license or valid ID to register to vote, well, then they’ll take care of that, too.
If that won’t work, then they’ll come at it from the other side, by abolishing the electoral college. Either way, the left is attacking the system (our constitution) to gain power.
It’s this writer’s opinion that the GOP has been dying, if not almost dead, for quite a while. I’m not saying that conservatism isn't alive and well in America, it’s jut not represented well in our federal government. Our Republican representatives are consistently more and more moderate, compromising, and corrupt, as time goes by.
There is much talk about an ensuing civil war in America. I don’t believe it’s ensuing at all…I believe it’s already started. When you have democratic presidential candidates talking about gun confiscation, and millions of people cheering them on, then folks, we’re in trouble. There’s no going back from something like that, the damage has been done.
All it takes is the next generation of impressionable youth, the prey of the left, to believe that because of school shootings, that their livelihood and safety are at stake because those “redneck conservatives” care more about having guns and ammo than keeping them safe.
Gee, I wonder where they heard that?
Would love to know your thoughts.